How to calculate the popularity of a startup and make a financial forecast?

Question

Startups

We have a startup. Social network. The social network is not ordinary (not like FB and VK), and is not a standard dating site. With a twist, in general. At the same time, this zest is used by our competitors, but we, of course, have a better wrapper, and the functionality is richer.
Competitors are in the top 50 in all appstores. This suggests that there is an audience, it needs to be lured away. We believe that the enticement will succeed. Due to the viral nature of a startup (your environment is quite important there (meaning that if your environment also uses our startup, then you will be much more pleasant, but not so much that it is impossible to use the application without the environment)).
Registration of a startup, taking into account all trademarks, legal entities, will cost about $ 10,000, we plan to open in Britain. The tax situation there is much better, Google Play is adequate, and we are still going to expand into the global market.
Plus advertising costs. I think such a thing as "contextual advertising Google, Yandex, etc." will not work, we need booms in various publications and viral advertising on social networks. And it's also not cheap. According to my calculations, about 8-10 thousand evergreens.
I summarize. We need money that we don't have. I am a student, my partner has just graduated from high school. Okay, we have connections with investors, but they are indirect, and we did not communicate with them personally. In general, we do not have rich friends.
At the same time, it is impossible to exclude the above costs, since:
1. This is not 2006. The idea along with the product can be stolen as soon as it sees the light of day, so registration of a patent is indispensable.
2. The registration of a patent entails the registration of a company and a trademark.
3. Registering in Russia is not an option. Bondage with state taxes, the need for an office and an accountant, as well as every second reports.
4. Registering in Russia is not an option. So do Google with their "countries where payments for companies are allowed" (in my opinion, these are Singapore, Britain, the USA and a little bit more, Russia is not among them), and Apple with their IANs, if I'm not mistaken - something sort of like mandatory taxes.
5. Option - register in Britain. There is no need for an office, and annual reports. And a patent registered in Britain will quickly pass to the international level.
6. Advertising is required, it's not 2006 now and we have competitors. Therefore, we must convey to potential users why we are better and why our service should be used.
In total, we need an investor, we will not take off ourselves. An investor needs a business plan, a mandatory component of which is a cash flow (the most detailed financial forecast).
Our social network has several ways to monetize:
1. Selling premium accounts. Price per month - 33 cents. According to my calculations, about 40% will use it (it unlocks really important and fun features).
2. Sale of gifts. There are certain penises on the network that can be measured (as the rating was in VK). With the help of gifts, the length of the penises can be increased, sorry. Spending at least a dollar a month will be about 5 percent (attention, according to my calculations).
3. Revolutionary targeted advertising. We will know a lot about users, they will not even suspect about it. The price for each will vary greatly.
Voot. The question is:
How to calculate cash flow? How to predict how many users will be in a given month after the start? How to predict how many people will actually buy premium accounts, gifts, and whether our project will be of interest to advertisers (yes, the audience is the entire planet Earth, aged from 16 to ... to 50 years old)?
Without these forecasts, it is impossible to draw up a cash flow, and, consequently, a business plan. It turns out, and not to attract an investor.
PS: Our highlight is anonymity. Our competitors are Secret.ly and Whisper.sh.
PPS: It's a big question, if you want to study it in depth - please feel free to contact me in the mail - [email protected]
PPPS: Comrade moderators! Background is needed for a deeper understanding of the issue, sorry if it turned out long. I note that the specific question is formulated at the end of this text.

Answer 1

If someone could be 100% guaranteed to calculate such things, he would have been the ruler of the world long ago.
The main assessment is the audience. Who are they, how many of them, how much can they spend. You never know that your competitor is in the top 50. Or maybe there is still no money there: an acquaintance of mine made a portal in our small town and laid there "adult" prices as for the West. Burnt out. Although interest was very great in his project.
Well, or another option. Now Facebook is top 1. Which of their competitors "with a twist" has even reached at least 10% of the size of Facebook?
That is, from the point of view of an investor, your project is completely uninteresting. Until you start reaching the tops, until you have a large audience, the investor is not interested in you.
Take a loan
))))
And you can't convince an investor like that. Social networks now do not only lazy. And 99.999999999999999999999999999% of them don't take off. Why does an investor need SUCH RISK?
Only at your own expense. Friends, relatives will help - this is how many large corporations started today.
And as soon as at least something begins to take shape, as soon as REAL and not theoretical figures appear, investors will catch up easily.
In a future project, you will have a bunch of other more complex problems. And if you cannot solve this not so difficult problem as registration - there is no point in investing money in you. More complex problems, therefore, you will not solve either.

Answer 2

KO tells you you need a business plan.

Answer 3

Create a portrait of your user. Find out the cost of one attracted user, based on this you will predict a marketing plan and a budget for attracting. In some cases, it is difficult to predict the cost of attraction, then you will have to make an mvp and spend money on advertising. Next, estimate what the minimum percentage of users will bring you money, lay down 10-15% of the total, if this is advertising, then% 5. In principle, your business model takes place if you buy cheap traffic at 1 ruble per click, and sell it at 10 rubles per click, targeting it.

Answer 4

1. This is not 2006. The idea along with the product can be stolen as soon as it sees the light of day, so registration of a patent is indispensable.
Ideas have been stolen in past centuries.
Not at all. A patent can also be for a private person.
Yeah. Other countries don't pay taxes.
And by the way, everything is just in the Russian Federation.
It all depends on - and who is your target audience.
5. Option - register in Britain. There is no need for an office, and annual reports. And a patent registered in Britain will quickly pass to the international level.
Exit or not - does not depend on the place of registration.
And how you will invest in your idea.
6. Advertising is required, it's not 2006 and we have competitors. Therefore, we must convey to potential users why we are better and why our service should be used.

If only it were that easy.