Website traffic forecasting methods

Question

Marketing

Sometimes the task arises to predict the traffic of a new project, on the Internet in this respect they most often refer to the article by Sergei Koksharov: Methods for predicting site traffic, as well as to the help of the well-known AllSubmitter program and its automatic forecasting capabilities.

What methods do you know of predicting the attendance of a new project?
It is desirable to tell in more detail, with formulas and graphs))

Answer 1

If the project is simple and with a small budget, then you can get by with “butt filling”, and when you need to know more or less exactly the amount, then you need to take into account many factors:
- advertising
costs - estimated traffic from search engines
- estimated visitor loyalty (because what is the probability that they will come every day)
- the type of site (social network, news site, forum, etc.) -
and many many more factors.
But it’s better, in my opinion, not to predict possible traffic, but to understand how many visitors you need to attract to the site in the first month, in the second, and so on. and strive for these numbers. Those. engage in advertising and promotion in such a way as to achieve the planned figure.

Answer 2

If you use a purely academic approach, then time series forecasting can help you. Check out these keywords. Mostly people apply this to forex, but I think in your case it will help highlight the trend in the medium and long term.

Answer 3

Yandex.Metrica has forecasting. Or do you need to embed in the project?

Answer 4

And in my opinion there is nothing to predict. Search traffic, for example, is not constant - algorithms change.
What is the purpose of such a forecast?