Modeling an epidemic?

Question

3D

Hello, I recently received my graduation assignment. We need to simulate a virus epidemic.
The system will have the following characteristics:
1. People (sick, not sick, immune)
a) population
b) the intensity of contact between people and groups.
c) population growth per year.
d) resistance to the virus (for simplicity, let's take groups of people)
2. Virus
a) Intensity of exploitation (the speed with which the virus kills a person)
b) reproduction
c) behavior strategy.
Task: to understand which strategy of the virus behavior will be the most successful (what success means, in principle, the same is not very clear yet).
Question: Help with the selection of literature. Because In principle, I still do not really understand where to look at all.
Found a book by Fred Brouwer. Mathematical Epidimiology, in English. It talks about the SIR model. Will it fit?
Is there such literature in Russian?
Thank you.

Answer 1

Well, smoking, apparently, agent-based model / simulation in general + game theory, maybe.

Answer 2

An interesting introductory book, in my opinion, just on your topic:
Supotnitsky M.V. Microorganisms, toxins and epidemics. - 2nd ed. - M., 2005. - 376 p.: ill.
The questions “what is the winning strategy of the parasite” and others are considered using the most famous examples.
You can read it directly on the author's website (and there are many more interesting things there!).
supotnitskiy.ru/book/book1.htm

Answer 3

You reminded me: www.crazymonkeygames.com/Pandemic-2.html

Answer 4

It is convenient to search for scientific literature on Google Scholar .

Answer 5

When I was still studying to be "like an ecologist", we always solved such problems according to one model: predator - prey - food base. I won’t say specific literature now, I read it in Lenin and for almost 15 years I forgot everything. Look at mat. ecosystem modeling. Literature is full and domestic (still Soviet). Offhand:
A sick person is a predator
. A healthy person is a victim
As a result of "eating" the victim, a predator is "born".
A predator has a relatively short lifespan (well, recovery and death) - this is "death".
The probability of meeting a predator and prey depends on their numerical ratio. The probability of getting sick (that is, the probability that a predator will eat the victim) can apparently be taken constant (if you do not take into account mutations, weather conditions, etc.,) if you take time longer than the epidemic season (that is, probably several years like the flu) acquired immunity must be taken into account.
All of the above three (or four together with the probability of getting sick) parameters are a function of each other and time. That is, you should get a system: three or four ordinary differential equations in time, the solution of which (built into any mat package) by "runge-kutta" will give the required picture of the coexistence of different biological species in dynamics. I advise you not to poke your head into epidemiology yet, just throw a mate. the backbone of the task based on common sense. And then you can add and add factors, since there is a simulink, simpy, etc.