How to calculate the predicted number of users?

Question

Startups

How to calculate the predicted number of users? Are there any formulas, methods, well, just how did anyone think?

Answer 1

If I knew where to fall, I would lay straws.
If I knew where there were many users yesterday, I would be a billionaire today.
You are asking a level question: tell me what are the laws of our world.
apptractor.ru/info/articles/gochat-kak-sdelat-pril... The person
gained 5 million users in a week.
There was not enough money to pay for the servers, since the users had not yet been monetized.
Well, you can't predict.
When everything is already working and there are statistics, you can predict from it.

Answer 2

If you discover such a universal method, you will get rich.
Well it will be possible to evaluate any project immediately. And deal only with highly profitable ones.
And not universal - is.
Well, for example, you decide to open a department in a shopping center. You just need to count how many people pass by your future department.
Then stand at the competitor's department and calculate how many of the passers-by come to the competitor to really buy and what they take for what amounts.
Then compare with how many customers buy in your department in another shopping center.
You can read the book:
https://vc.ru/p/chto-chitat-startaperu-arkadiy-moreynis
How to measure anything. About how to make guesses. How many piano tuners are there in the US? You say, I don't know, but you should be able to answer. Let's say a startup makes software for piano tuners. Ask them how big your market is? And they: “Well, how do we know…” One must be able to count everything, at least roughly evaluate it.

Answer 3

still won't come true from the bullshit