Why such differences in bid estimation in direct.yandex?

Question

Yandex.Direct

Good afternoon,
Tell me, why is the bid estimate so different in "budget planning" and directly in setting bids for keywords? For example, in planning for the phrase "office repair time" there are 42 clicks, traffic volume 9, average rate forecast 57.80, debited amount 0.40 with a CTR of 22%, and a total monthly budget of 2 rubles, and there is no data at all in the directive on volume of traffic, apparently the company has not yet been launched, but the rate goes for 5 units of traffic, the forecast is 646.40, the write-off price is 626.20, and if you make a bid of 700, then there will be 34 impressions, while the scheduler for this phrase gives a maximum of 15 and the number of clicks is 2 ...
What should I bet on: 57.80, as the planner recommends, or from 646.20 + some percentage, as written in direct? The difference is 11 times after all.
Another question about direct traffic evaluation. Direct shows from 5 to 92, choose any and gives the number of impressions at least 92, if you set the bid to 1500, and the "scheduler" writes that there are only 42 requests for the selected region. Where will 92 come from?
Whom to believe, friends, and how to set a bid so that it really isn’t 700 per click and that the ad is shown only for this request?
Thanks in advance.

Answer 1

1. The budget planner gives you a predicted average click through rate, impressions, and bid. And the predicted values ​​are closer to reality, the more frequent phrases are used for the forecast (more than 50 impressions - more accurate) and the more phrases are used for calculation (from 30 phrases - more accurate). In practice, with a more or less well-tuned campaign, the average cost per click and the number of clicks based on the results of the first months of work are the same. But it coincides with the campaign as a whole, not for individual phrases.
But apart from that:
2. The budget forecast uses data for the previous 30 days of other advertisers' work for these phrases. Accordingly, if your season is just beginning or vice versa, the results will be different.
3. The budget forecasting tool does not take into account audience bid adjustments, time targeting, or the quality of your ads. A lot depends on ads and their CTR. Competently composed, relevant ads will give the cost of a click several times less.
4. But in fact, while your campaign has not yet started and you have not received the first clicks, the cost of a click in the interface can often be greatly inflated. And it will drop sharply after the real launch of the campaign. This often confuses beginners.
5. As for the numbers in the leftmost column, this is not the number of impressions. This is the potential volume of traffic. Roughly speaking, you can think of it as a percentage of the number of transitions that are potentially possible for a given request. That is, if in the budget forecast you had 42 clicks on this phrase, then with the assigned bid for the volume of 92, you can potentially get 42 * 92% = 39 clicks. This is roughly speaking, if only because this left column often contains rates for volumes above 100, but it roughly allows you to understand the meaning of these numbers.
And if you do not have a goal to independently learn placement in Yandex.Direct based on your own mistakes and spent budgets, I would sincerely recommend that you contact a specialist to prepare and run campaigns for your products.