How to calculate the market size?

Question

Marketing

How to calculate the size of a certain part of the IT market, for example, fitness trackers? Perhaps there are certain formulas?

Answer 1

fitness trackers are not an IT market, the vast majority of IT people are sitting at the computer uninterruptedly, the
market must be evaluated by users,
it is logical that you need to find statistics on the number of athletes, say in Russia, if you study the Russian market,
then women should be subtracted from them, since in my opinion they do not buy such gadgets, let's say, exclude everyone over 30 years old, since the old generation is little interested in such things.
And then we go and do research, we interview 100 people from our target group, let's say one of them will answer that the tracker wants 10 people, then we divide the previous figure by 10 and get the maximum market in greenhouse conditions

Answer 2

There is no formula, but lower and upper bounds can be given.
For example:
lower estimate - 0 (similar to the size of the fitness tracker market in 1913)
upper estimate - 6000000000 (no more than the population of the Earth)
Estimates, of course, can be improved by taking into account more factors.
But seriously, how do you think consulting firms make money? This is how they earn.

Answer 3

By the coefficient method, if not strange!

Answer 4

I don't think there is one formula. There are various methods. They are well described in the book "Sales Planning with 90% Accuracy" the author, alas, did not immediately remember.
Maybe there are other resources?