How do you track the conversion of newly registered users to a permanent audience?

Question

Conversion

Description: There are several sources of traffic - direct, organic and social networks. Each source provides a certain number of registrations on the site (registration in this case is a lead, the final action). Analytics systems have goals to track the registrations of these users. And also the UserID (login) in the service is recorded in the cookie.
Task: how best to determine the conversion of newly registered users into a permanent loyal audience based on these collected data? A permanent audience here means users who visit the resource, for example, periodically for a month or more.

Answer 1

Alternatively, during authorization, you can write the date of registration to the google variable (customvar) and then see how many registrations there were, say, in June and what users registered during June did next.

Answer 2

You can determine the conversion only after you formalize the goal "the user has become a permanent loyal audience", and then look at the percentage of achieving this goal for each traffic source.
That is, it is impossible to solve this problem in a direct formulation, since it is impossible to set up such a goal using, say, Google Analytics.
Moreover, a woodpecker can register in January, and "become loyal" in May... You'll have to work hard just to formalize the task. And theoretically, it can be solved using either an additional script that fixes the frequency of visits of a particular UserID. Or make queries yourself through the API with the desired filter and / or segment (date of the first visit, source of the visit, time since the last visit, UserID, etc. - there are a lot of interesting parameters), and then combine the results into a pivot table, with the calculation percentage of "became loyal" for each traffic source.