Why is the price written off in the budget forecaster and in the directive itself different?

Question

Yandex.Direct

The budget forecaster has the following picture:
And when setting up a campaign in direct, it’s different:

Whom to trust?

Answer 1

The budget forecast shows the average price from advertisers for this query over the past 30 days, excluding competitors' time constraints and the quality of your campaign.
In the campaign interface, you already see the price at the current time, including the price calculated based on the parameters of your campaign, your ads, and their relevance to queries. In addition, this price usually decreases significantly after an hour or two after the launch of an advertising campaign, because more parameters are connected for calculation, which are already working out in the campaign's real operation mode.

Answer 2

well, you are only at the very beginning
, somewhere there, yanlex explains about competition and other parameters
, in short - the price is dynamic, in the forecaster there is only the order of numbers

Answer 3

Alexey Denisov painted everything well for you. Now you will be surprised that the actual write-off price will differ from both forecasts, ranging from a little to several times).