Question about habraeffect. What load can be expected? collecting opinions?

Question

Highload

Hello. I read about the notorious hayura effect. Some projects had up to 100 hits per second. But you need to understand that these projects had “reverse users” (actually a bunch of F5 presses), at a time when the number of uniques was 15,000, and this is still 10 per minute, not 100 per second.

I'm asking for your opinion on it.

Condition.
Platform:
Home, Server Core2Duo T6670 + 4Gb, WinServer2008R2 on it, VirtualBox + Debian on it, LAMP stack with mpm-itk configuration on it (according to all the rules of the genre, stupid hosting, with all the consequences).
The virtual machine is given one full core and a gigabyte of RAM. The maximum channel squeezes out 25Mb / s, if you're lucky (limited by the router, it's stupid for me)

There will be no F5 back users, but users could theoretically stay up to 20 minutes. When downloading pages at a speed of 2-3 clicks per minute. The site itself is informational.

Problem:
Testing I did on JMeter on the busiest page of the site is
30 replies per second at 65% vcpu load (top utility), with a 10Mb/s channel load (that was my maximum on the other side of the channel). Probably 65% ​​will turn into 90% over time, but the percentage will survive, I will have to add a second core and I will be happy.

Question:
Will the server + channel survive? Or, for the time being, place it on something more native or with a large channel, for example, on hosting.

Probably, I didn’t describe the problem very fully in numbers, but I’m just interested in opinions “by eye”.

Thank you for your attention and I apologize for wasting time if the question is not very good.

Answer 1

The habraeffect is that a large number of users visit the page at the same time, hence up to 100 hits per second. According to your own calculations, all users are "smeared" for 24 hours. Which is fundamentally wrong.
I advise you to immediately place the project on a high-quality shared hosting or VDS, otherwise you risk losing a lot of time and visitors if the site is unavailable due to overload and subsequent transfer.

Answer 2

It should be understood that habraeffect is a loose concept.
Yes, you can instantly get 100 clicks per page per second, but this is if you wrote a good and interesting article that creates interest in your resource, and posted it at the right time.
On the contrary, if the article is so-so or the resource is of little interest, then you can not count on more than 1500 people a day for 3-4 days.

Answer 3

For example, I have an example in one topic, there was a load of about 30 transitions per minute at the peak, and in just the first week there were around 4000 unique ones. Few!
But after all, the topic is highly specialized, not everyone is interested.
In general, it will depend on the audience. Not every topic is read by everyone, and not every reader will follow the links.