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dollar2019-05-09 09:08:39
Mathematics
dollar, 2019-05-09 09:08:39

How to calculate the probability of an attack (wound) in the board game Spartacus?

The rules of combat are not complicated. For example, the attacker has 5 attack dice and the defender has 3 defense dice. Both roll all their dice. The cubes are then sorted in descending order and compared accordingly. If the value on the die is higher than on the corresponding one, then it is a wound. Each extra die also gives one wound, if there is a value greater than 2.

Example
Нападающий выкинул: 6 5 4 3 2
Обороняющийся выкинул: 6 4 4
Получается два ранения, потому что 5 > 4, и свободный кубик 3, который больше 2. Но при этом 6 = 6 и 4 = 4, так что по этим позициям атака не прошла. А также значение 2 в свободном кубике не сработало.

And it seems that everything is not so complicated, and I even counted different cases: the chance of exactly 1 injury will be 16.60%, the chance of exactly 4 injuries will be 17.64%, the chance of at least 1 injury will be 87.66%, etc. But a new factor is introduced into the game - a skill that allows the attacker to re- roll one of the dice at will. It is obvious that it makes sense to reroll a die on which a 1-3 has fallen. Therefore, the player's actions are simple: he takes the smallest die, and if it is 1-3, then he rerolls.
But how now to calculate the probability? It turns out that one event turned into 6 events, each of which is not equally likely to other events (which are without a die roll). That is, if the minimum die is 1-3, then the player rerolls, and if 4-6, then he does not reroll. At least how to calculate how many options there are now? It used to be 68 (because there are 8 dice in total).
spoiler
А чтобы мозги совсем расплавились, оказывается, что значение 3 не всегда нужно перебрасывать. Например, если атакующий выкинул 6 6 6 3 3, то нет смысла перебрасывать, потому что тройки дали по ранению. А если атакующий выкинул 5 4 3 3 3 и оборона 5 4 3, то уже имеет смысл перебросить, потому что из-за сортировки шестёрка на новом кубике даст сразу +3 ранения, пятёрка даст +2 ранения, четвёрка даст +1 ранение, тройка ничего не даст (ничего не изменится), и 1-2 уже -1 ранение, но в целом выгода очевидна.

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longclaps, 2019-05-09
@dollar

It is obvious that it makes sense to reroll a die on which a 1-3 has fallen.

Nonsense.
If the defender has 6-6-6, there is no point in re-rolling.
If the defender has 6-6-5, it makes sense to re-roll any lower 6.

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