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Alan Gibizov2021-10-25 18:56:48
Probability theory
Alan Gibizov, 2021-10-25 18:56:48

How to calculate how much the probability of getting sick will decrease if you use two different means (for example, a mask and distancing)?

Suppose the probability of dying from covid is the product of the probability of getting infected by the probability of getting sick by the probability of getting complications by the probability of not coping with complications.
But if, say, I put on a mask and maintain “social distance”, each of these means reduces the likelihood of infection and, therefore, ultimately reduces the likelihood of death.
But how to correctly calculate this influence? (If we ignore the question of the real effectiveness of these funds, let's assume that there is an influence, albeit small).
But how to calculate correctly? Multiply the probability of getting infected by (1-probability of mask protection) and (1-probability of distancing protection)? Or how?

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mkone112, 2021-10-26
@phaggi

Alan Gibizov, let the probability of getting infected is Z, let the mask reduce the probability of infection by 30%, and distancing by 20%, the total probability of getting infected in the mask = z*(1-0.3), the probability of getting infected by distancing = z*(1-0.2), and the probability and with both = z*(1-0.3)*(1-0.2)

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