How to calculate hosting failure probability?

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Dimas1232016-01-12 10:35:30

Mathematics

Dimas123, 2016-01-12 10:35:30

Over the past year (365 days) hosting did not work 3 times in a whole day. Suppose this year it will also be unavailable 3 times for 1 day. What is the probability that the breakdown will happen from March 14 to March 31?

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2 answer(s)

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Roman Kitaev, 2016-01-12
@Dimas123

The probability of breaking every day is 0.821917808%
Not breaking, respectively, 99.178082192%
Not breaking for 17 days in a row - 86.9094504%
Correspondingly, breaking at least once in 17 days 13.090549642%
If we assume in some magical way that the distribution of breakdowns is even.

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Sergey, 2016-01-12
@gangstarcj

50% of what will break these days 50% of what will not break