How to calculate hosting failure probability?

Question

Mathematics

Over the past year (365 days) hosting did not work 3 times in a whole day. Suppose this year it will also be unavailable 3 times for 1 day. What is the probability that the breakdown will happen from March 14 to March 31?

Answer 1

The probability of breaking every day is 0.821917808%
Not breaking, respectively, 99.178082192%
Not breaking for 17 days in a row - 86.9094504%
Correspondingly, breaking at least once in 17 days 13.090549642%
If we assume in some magical way that the distribution of breakdowns is even.

Answer 2

50% of what will break these days 50% of what will not break