Am I interpreting the data correctly?

Question

Python

I was wondering how fast the coronavirus is spreading in different countries.
I wrote a script that shows the average percentage of new infections compared to the previous day.
My goal is to find out how much of a threat the coronavirus poses to Russia.
The coronavirus has been in Russia for 78 days. So I decided to take the statistics for the last 30 days. Or rather, I take statistics starting from day 48.

import httpx
import pandas as pd
from io import StringIO
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np

url = 'https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv'
df = pd.read_csv(StringIO(httpx.get(url).text))
avg_k = {}

for _, series in df.iterrows():
    country = series.array[1]
    cases = list(filter(lambda x: x != 0, series.array[4:]))

    if len(cases) < 48 + 10 or cases[-1] < 15000:
        continue
    cases = cases[48:]
    avg_k[country] = np.average([cases[i] / cases[i - 1] for i in range(1, len(cases))])
    plt.semilogy(range(len(cases)), cases, label=country)
for k, v in sorted(avg_k.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True):
    print(f"{k}: {(v - 1) * 100:.3f}%")
plt.legend(loc="lower right")
plt.show()

I get this result:

US: 19.714%
Russia: 19.251%
United Kingdom: 13.918%
France: 12.857%
Germany: 10.495%
Belgium: 9.668%
Spain: 8.503%
Italy: 5.128%
Iran: 2.421%
China: 0.014%

From which I conclude that in Russia the coronavirus will proceed in the same way as in European countries, and perhaps the situation will be the same as in the United States.
But the fact is that each country may have a peak at different times, and I do not take this into account.
And I don't know how right I'm drawing conclusions. It seems to me that I am mistaken somewhere.

Answer 1

you interpret correctly , you
are not mistaken anywhere
except ...

Answer 2

From which I conclude that in Russia the coronavirus will proceed in the same way as in European countries, and perhaps the situation will be the same as in the United States.

Well, cool - world-famous epidemiologists and virologists are still very careful in their assessments and conclusions until the end of the epidemic - and you have already deduced everything with a simple mathematical operation)))